30 January 2007

Super Bowl Bound

Okay, for the long overdue SuperBowl posting, first off


Secondly, I predict the Bears win 34-24. I cannot see the Colts scoring at will on a pumped up Bears defense playing with a chip on their shoulder. The Bears offense plays much better loose than with the pressure on it. The X-factor is the Bears defense and return teams which scored 9 touchdowns in the regular season, but none so far in two post season games. The offenses play to a draw, with the Bears special teams and defense winning the game.

Now for some amatuer analysis. Maybe I missed this part in all of the hype about the superior Indianapolis Colts offense. I did some crack research, and found out that during the regular season, the Bears scored 427 points, and the Colts scored 427 points. Hmmm, that seems fairly even to me. Yes, it is true that the combined records of the Colts opponents (128-128) was better than the Bears opponents (110-146), but it averages out to just a little more than one game better (Colts 8-8, Bears 7-9), not too overwhelming. During the regular season the Colts scored an average of 26.7 points per game and allowed 22.5. The Bears also scored 26.7, but only allowed 15.9. The overall league average was 20.6 points per team per game. The Colts opponents scored an average of 20.9 points per game and allowed 20.5 points per game, very close to league average. The Bears opponents were obviously not as good, with 19.2 scored, and 21.7 allowed. Taking these differences into account, the Colts opponents were on average about 3 points per game tougher than the Bears.

Simple scoring analysis (CHI Points scored + IND points allowed)/2 vs. (IND Points scored + CHI points allowed)/2 would indicate the Bears should come away with a 25 to 21 point victory. Even allowing the Colts the 3 points for their tougher opponents, although closer, still favors the Bears.

Feel free to blast my simplified math analysis, but it got 8/10 playoff games correct so far, and as a Bears fan here is to making it 9 of 11.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

i don't remember my password for this, sorry. your math looks fairly decent to me man. it's not an overwhelming advantage, but you've at least proven that all of the yahoos who seem to think this game will be a blowout in indy's favor are, in fact, yahoos, and need to get their facts more straight. they're pretty evenly matched, but i agree, i think the Bears special teams is going to play a big role in this game, with their ability to run the ball and cause a turnover here and there (the defense can do a pretty good job at that too). i'm with you man, GO BEARS!! that payton sure is cute though, and his commercials are so funny... *twitter twitter*